I-Moody's yehlise umbono wayo ngesilinganiso sesikweletu esizimele sase-US saba mubi, okwadala ukukhathazeka okujulile emakethe mayelana nokusimama kokusimama komnotho womhlaba. Njengomnyombo oqhuba isidingo sempahla, ukwehla komnotho okulindelekile e-United States kanye nengcindezi yokushoda kwezimali kuye kwakha ukucindezela okukabili, okubangele ingcindezi yesikhathi esifushane ebalulekile ezimakethe zethusi ne-aluminium. Nakuba ukwehla kwenkomba yedola laseMelika kunikeze ukwesekwa okuthile kumanani entengo, ukuqiniswa kokungqubuzana kwesidingo sokuhlinzekwa kwempahla kanye nokulukwa kokungaqiniseki kwenqubomgomo kukhulise kakhulu ukuntengantenga kwamanani entengo yensimbi.
Uhlangothi lwesidingo: Ukuzwakala phakathi kokuncipha kwengqalasizinda kanye nokuphazamiseka kokuthekelisa.
Ukwehliswa kwesilinganiso sesikweletu sase-US kuthinta ngokuqondile okulindelwe ukutshalwa kwengqalasizinda, futhi umthethosivivinywa kaTrump owawuhlelelwe ingqalasizinda ka-$500 webhiliyoni ungase uphoqeleke ukuthi wehliselwe emuva, okuholela ekwehleni kwesidingo sethusi sokwakhiwa ngamathani angu-120000 kuya kwangu-150000 ngonyaka. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, umdlalo we-tariff phakathi kweChina ne-United States uyaqhubeka nokukhula, namahemuhemu asakaza ukuthi i-US ihlela ukubeka intela ye-25% ku-copper kanye ne-aluminium engenayo. Lokhu kuzonyusa izindleko zokukhiqizwa kwasekhaya e-United States futhi kucindezele isidingo semikhiqizo egayiwe evela kwamanye amazwe njengamaphrofayili e-aluminium namapayipi ethusi. Uma izinyathelo eziphikisana ne-EU zenziwa, ukugeleza kwe-aluminium emhlabeni jikelele kungase kubhekane nokuhlelwa kabusha, kanye neChinaukuthunyelwa kwe-aluminiumukuya eYurophu kungase kubhekane nezindleko ezengeziwe ze-10%.
Uhlangothi lokunikezwayo: Umdlalo phakathi kokunciphisa ukukhiqiza nokuqalisa kabusha uyaqina.
Ukuphazamiseka ohlangothini lokuhlinzekwa kwezimayini zethusi kuyaqhubeka, njengoba ukukhiqizwa kweCodelco yaseChile kwehla ngo-18% unyaka nonyaka engxenyeni yokuqala, kanye nemayini yethusi yasePeru iLas Bambas yehlisa ukukhiqizwa ngo-30% ngenxa yemibhikisho yomphakathi. Kodwa-ke, ukuphothulwa kokulungiswa kwezincibilikisi zasekhaya kuholele ekwenyukeni kwenyanga ngo-0.37% ekukhiqizeni ithusi elicolisisiwe ngo-Ephreli. Mayelana ne-aluminiyamu ye-electrolytic, ukuqaliswa kabusha kwamandla kagesi e-Yunnan kwenze amandla okukhiqiza abuyela kumathani ayizigidi ezingama-43.64. Kodwa-ke, ukuhoxiswa kwelayisensi yokuthunyelwa kwe-bauxite yaseGuinea kuye kwaphakamisa ukukhathazeka mayelana nokuhlinzekwa kwempahla eluhlaza, okwenza amanani entengo e-alumina enyuke ngo-12% ngosuku olulodwa futhi ukusekelwa kwezindleko zenyukele ku-17800 yuan/ton. Kuyaphawuleka ukuthi i-LME yethusi yokusungula inyukile yafinyelela kumathani ayi-187000, kuyilapho i-aluminium yokusungula isala isezingeni eliphezulu lamathani angu-550000. Ingcindezi ye-inventory ecacile ayikakakhululwa ngokugcwele.
Izindleko Nenqubomgomo: Umthelela Wenguquko Yamandla Kumqondo Wentengo
Uguquko lwamandla omhlaba wonke luyashesha futhi lunciphisa isidingo sezinsimbi ezivamile zezimboni. Ukuthuthukiswa kwendlela ye-carbon tariff ye-EU kuholele ekwenyukeni kuka-8-10% kwezindleko zokuncibilikisa i-aluminium, futhi izinga lokukhula kwesidingo se-aluminium kuma-photovoltaics lingase lehle lisuka ku-25% liye ku-15%. Ukwanda kokukhiqizwa kukawoyela we-shale e-United States kwehlise izindleko zamandla, futhi isikhungo sezindleko esiseceleni se-electrolytic aluminium sehliselwe ku-$2500/ton. Kodwa-ke, ukuqinisa izinqubomgomo zezemvelo kungase kwenyuse izindleko ezinkulu zamaphrojekthi okwakha amasha aphesheya kwezilwandle. Ngaphakathi, inqubomgomo yemboni yensimbi egaywe kabusha iqinisiwe, ngenhloso yokukhulisa ingxenye yekhopha egaywe kabusha iye ku-40% ngo-2025, okungase kumise kabusha iphethini yomhlaba wonke yokuhlinzeka ngethusi ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.
Umbono ngekusasa: Amathuba esakhiwo ngaphansi kokushintshashintsha okukhulayo.
Izintengo zethusi zesikhathi esifushane zingahlola ukwesekwa ku-77500 yuan/ton, kanti inkontileka eyinhloko ye-Shanghai Aluminium igxile emqhudelwaneni wamaka wama-yuan ka-20000. Uma inqubomgomo yokuvuselela ingqalasizinda yase-US isilela kulokho okulindelekile, izinga lokukhula kwesidingo sethusi kwikota yesithathu lingase libuyekezwe lehle liye ku-1.8%, futhi izintengo ze-aluminium zizobhekana nengozi yokuwa kwezindleko zika-$2500-2600 ngethani. Phakamisa ukunaka izimpawu ezimbili ezinkulu: 1) ukuthi i-LME yethusi yokusungula iwile ngaphansi kwamathani ayi-150000; 2) Ingabe okulindelekile kwe-Federal Reserve ukunciphisa amanani enzalo ngaphambi kwesikhathi esimisiwe ngenxa yedatha yezomnotho ewohlokayo. Umkhakha wezimboni udinga ukuqaphela ubungozi bokubiyela obubangelwa amazinga aphezulu we-inventory. Abatshalizimali bangakwazi ukunaka amathuba ahlukahlukene e-arbitrage futhi babambe iwindi lokulungiswa kwentengo ye-aluminium yethusi.
Isiphetho: I-Anchoring Industrial Logic in Ukungaqiniseki.
Ukwehliswa kwezilinganiso empeleni kuwuphawu oluncane lokwehluleka kokubusa komnotho emhlabeni jikelele, futhi imakethe yethusi ne-aluminium ibhekene noshintsho lwentengo lusuka “ekuqiniseni isidingo” luye “ekuwohlokeni kwezindleko”. Abatshalizimali kudingeka baphume ogibeni lokuntengantenga kwesikhashana, bagxile enkambisweni yesikhathi eside yokuguqulwa kwamandla kanye nokuhlelwa kabusha kwe-supply chain, futhi bathwebule amathuba okuhweba alethwa ukungqubuzana kwesakhiwo ekuntengantenganeni.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: May-23-2025