Intuthu evela eStrait of Hormuz ibangela ukusabela kwamakhemikhali okunzima ochungechungeni lokukhiqiza lomhlaba wonke. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kukhona "i-tsunami yezindleko" ebangelwa ukuphazamiseka kokuhlinzekwa kwe-aluminium nge-electrolytic, kanti ngakolunye uhlangothi, kukhona "inzuzo yokushintshana" eqhutshwa ukuthuthuka kukawoyela ongahluziwe. Lapho amanani e-aluminium engase afinyelele phezulu emlandweni angama-$4000/ton futhi amanani kawoyela akhuphukayo enza izimoto zikagesi zibe yindawo ephephile, imakethe yezimoto zamandla ezintsha ngo-2026 imi endaweni engakaze ibonwe ngaphambili: uhlangothi lwezindleko "luyavuza" kanti uhlangothi lwesidingo "luyahlanganyela". Ubani ozokhokhela izindleko ekupheleni kwalo mdlalo?
1. Ukuqhuma komthambo we-aluminium: 'ukushaqeka kokunikezwa' okubambezelekile
Uma uwoyela uyisisekelo semboni yanamuhla, khona-ke “i-aluminium” iwuhlaka olulula. Okwamanje, ‘umthambo’ waloluhlaka, iStrait of Hormuz, ubhekene nengozi yokunqunywa ngokuphelele.
Isexwayiso sikaWang Yiwen, umhlaziyi we-Guangfa Futures, asisho ukuthi ukhuluma ngokweqile. Njengoba isimo eMpumalanga Ephakathi siqhubeka nokuba sibi, amazwe afana ne-United Arab Emirates kanye ne-Iran, athembele kakhulu ku-alumina engenisiwe, angase aphoqeleke ukuba alandele isibonelo futhi anciphise umkhiqizo emasontweni amabili kuya kwamathathu ezayo. Lokhu akusikho nje ukuvalwa kwesikhathi esifushane, kodwa futhi nokushaqeka kokunikezwa kwamandla ombane okungenakuguqulwa.
Isikhathi esibekiwe: Uma ithangi le-aluminium elekthroniki selivaliwe, umjikelezo wokuqalisa kabusha ungathatha izinyanga ezifika kwezingu-6-12. Lokhu kusho ukuthi noma ngabe ukuthula kuza ngesonto elizayo, igebe lokuhlinzekwa kwe-aluminium emhlabeni wonke ngo-2026 selivele liyinto engaziwa.
Ubukhulu begebe: Ukunikezwa kwamanye amazwe kungase kube ukukhula okungekuhle, futhi igebe lokufunwa kokunikezwa komhlaba wonke lingakhula ngokushesha lifinyelele ezingeni lamathani ayizigidi.
Umkhawulo wentengo usuvele uvuliwe: uma kuvela amandla amakhulu, ukushaqeka kwentengo ye-aluminium ye-LME engu-$3700~$4000 ngethani akuseyona inganekwane, kodwa kuyinto engenzeka kakhulu.
Embonini yokukhiqiza, lokhu akulona nje igxathu ledijithali, kodwa futhi kuyindlela yokushintsha izindleko zegolide nesiliva langempela.
2. Izimoto ezintsha zamandla: izindleko ezivinjelwe “yi-aluminium” kanye nesidingo esiqhutshwa “yi-oyela”
Kulesi siphepho, imboni yezimoto ezintsha zamandla isibe yiqembu eliphikisana kakhulu: kokubili iyisisulu esikhulu sokwenyuka kwamanani e-aluminium kanye nomzuzi omkhulu wokwenyuka kwamanani kawoyela.
1. Izindleko: Imoto ngayinye inemali eyengeziwe engama-yuan angu-760 “yentela yempi”
Ukuthanda kakhulu ukukhanyisa izimoto ezintsha zamandla kuzenze zaba abathengi abakhulu be-aluminium. Idatha ikhombisa ukuthi izimoto ezintsha zamandla kagesi ezihlanzekile zisebenzisa isilinganiso samakhilogremu angaphezu kuka-200 e-aluminium ngemoto ngayinye, cishe kabili kunezimoto zikaphethiloli zendabuko.Ingxubevange ye-aluminiumisatshalaliswa kabanzi ezakhiweni zomzimba wemoto, ezimbozweni zamabhethri, ezikhungweni zamasondo, kanye nasezinhlelweni zokuphatha ukushisa.
Ake sibale i-akhawunti:
Uma kubalwa ngokusekelwe ekukhuphukeni kwakamuva kwama-yuan angu-3800/ton emananini e-aluminium uma kuqhathaniswa nentengo ejwayelekile ngo-2025, kuyo yonke imoto kagesi ekhiqizwayo, izindleko zezinto zokusetshenziswa zodwa zizokwenyuka ngqo ngama-yuan angaba ngu-760.
Ezinkampanini zezimoto ezithengisa izimoto eziyisigidi minyaka yonke, lokhu kusho izindleko ezengeziwe zezindleko ezicishe zibe yizigidi ezingu-800 zama-yuan.
Ezinkampanini zezimoto ezincane neziphakathi ezinenzuzo encane, le yuan engu-760 ingaba yingxenyana yokugcina ephula umhlane wekamela, icindezele ngqo indawo yazo yokuhlala evele incane futhi ibangele nenkinga yokulethwa kwezimpahla.
2. Uhlangothi lwesidingo: “Ushintsho olungenamsebenzi” olulethwe amanani kawoyela adlula ku-100%
Kodwa-ke, olunye uhlangothi lwemakethe luyashisa. Uwoyela ongahluziwe we-Brent udlule u-$110 ngebhareli, futhi amanani ashintshashintshayo eziteshini zikaphethiloli abe amabhodi amahle kakhulu ezimoto zikagesi.
Izigcawu zenzeka kusukela eManila kuya eHanoi:
EManila, ePhilippines: UMatthew Dominique Poh, ummeleli wezokuthengisa e-BYD dealership, uthe inani lama-oda emasontweni amabili edlule lilingana nelenyanga edlule. “Amakhasimende ashintsha izimoto zikaphethiloli ngezikagesi,” kusho yena. Amanani kaphethiloli abiza kakhulu
IHanoi, eVietnam: Ukuvakashela kwamakhasimende eVinFast showroom sekuphindwe kathathu. Phakathi namasonto amathathu kuqubuke ingxabano, isitolo sithengise izimoto zikagesi ezingu-250, kanye nokuthengiswa kwezimoto ezingaphezu kuka-80 ngesonto, okuyisilinganiso esiphindwe kabili kunesilinganiso ngo-2025.
U-Albert Park, isazi sezomnotho esikhulu seBhange Lentuthuko lase-Asia, ukhombe ngokugqamile: “Ukwenyuka kwamanani kawoyela bekulokhu kuzuzisa ekushintsheleni ezimotweni zikagesi. Kungadala izikhuthazo zomnotho zokusheshisa lolu shintsho oluhlaza.
Leli iqiniso elimangalisayo lamanje: abathengi bathenga izimoto zikagesi ngoba besaba amanani aphezulu kaphethiloli, kodwa izinkampani zezimoto zikhathazekile ngezindleko eziphezulu ze-aluminium ezisetshenziswa ekwenzeni izimoto zikagesi.
3. Umdlalo Ojulile: Ingabe Igagasi Lokwenyuka Kwentengo Lizofika?
Njengoba sibhekene nokucindezela okubili “kokwenyuka kwezindleko” kanye “nokwenyuka kokuthengisa”, ingabe izimoto ezintsha zamandla zizokwenyuka ngentengo? Impendulo ingase ingabi 'yebo' noma 'cha' elula, kodwa kunalokho kube ukulungiswa kwesakhiwo okuhlukile.
1. Imikhiqizo ephezulu: Dlulisa izindleko futhi ugcine amanani aphezulu
Ezinkampanini zezimoto eziphezulu ezinezimbobo zomkhiqizo ezinamandla kanye namandla entengo (njengeTesla, uchungechunge oluphezulu lwe-BYD, izinhlobo zokunethezeka), ukwenyuka kwezindleko zama-yuan angu-760 kungamuncwa ngokuphelele ngokulungisa intengo yokuthengisa noma ukwenza ngcono ukucushwa. Ngokuphambene nesizinda samanani aphezulu kawoyela, abathengi abazweli kakhulu entengo yama-yuan ayizinkulungwane ezimbalwa futhi bagcizelela kakhulu izindleko eziphelele zobunikazi (TCO) kuyo yonke impilo. Ukwenyuka kwentengo kungase kufihlwe yisidingo esinamandla.
2. Amandla aphakathi kuya kwaphansi kanye namandla amasha: ingcindezi yenzuzo, ukushintsha impilo nokufa
Ezinkampanini zezimoto ezincane neziphakathi ezigxile ekusebenziseni kahle izindleko futhi ezithembele enzuzweni encane ukuze zithengise ngokushesha, isimo sibi kakhulu. Azinawo amandla anele okuxoxisana ukuze zicindezele izitshalo ze-aluminium ezikhuphukayo, futhi azilokothi ziphakamise amanani kalula ukuze zesabise amakhasimende azwela amanani.
Isiphetho A: Ukudela inzuzo kanye nezindleko zokuthwala, okuholela ekuwohlokeni kwemibiko yezezimali kanye nobunzima ekuxhaseni ngezimali.
Umphumela B: Ukunciphisa izindleko nokunciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwe-aluminium, kodwa lokhu kungathinta ukuphepha kwezimoto kanye nobubanzi bazo, futhi kulimaze idumela lomkhiqizo.
Isiphetho C: Kuphoqelekile ukuba kususwe. Lo mjikelezo "wentengo ye-aluminium + intengo kawoyela" cishe uzosheshisa ukuhlelwa kabusha kwemboni futhi ususe iqembu labadlali abanekhono lokumelana nezingozi elibuthakathaka.
3. 'IMpumalanga ayikhanyi, iNtshonalanga ikhanya' ochungechungeni lwezimboni
Kuyaphawuleka ukuthi yize izindleko zokukhiqiza izimoto eziphelele zikhuphukile, izinkampani ze-aluminium ezisezingeni eliphezulu kanye nezinkampani zezimoto ezihlanganisiwe ezinemithombo yazo ye-aluminium zizozuza kakhulu. Amabhizinisi anezimayini phesheya kwezilwandle kanye nezinkampani zezimboni eziphelele ngaphakathi ezweni azothatha inzuzo eyengeziwe kule nkinga, okwandisa igebe phakathi kwabancintisana nabo.
4. Isiphetho: 'Ukhiye wokusheshisa' osenkingeni
Umlilo wezikhali eMpumalanga Ephakathi wacindezela ngokungazelelwe inkinobho ethi “accelerator” yokushintsha kwamandla emhlabeni jikelele.
Nakuba intengo ekhuphukayo ye-aluminium ilethe ubuhlungu embonini yokukhiqiza futhi ingase ibangele nokushintshashintsha kwentengo yesikhathi esifushane kanye nokuvalwa kwamabhizinisi ngamanye, ngokombono we-macro, amanani aphezulu wamandla asetshenziswayo alungisa ngamandla ukuthembela kwesintu emandleni endabuko ngamandla angakaze abonwe.
Ukwenyuka kwezindleko zama-yuan angu-760 kuyabuhlungu, kodwa lapho izinombolo eziteshini zikaphethiloli zenza abantu bangabaze, le akhawunti isivele inempendulo ezingqondweni zabathengi. Embonini yezimoto zamandla amasha, lokhu kungaba "ukwelashwa kokuklwebheka amathambo":
Esikhathini esifushane, kuwumdlalo onzima wezindleko nenzuzo;
Ekugcineni, kuyimbangela yokwandisa ukuhlushwa kwemboni kanye nokuphindaphinda kobuchwepheshe (njenge-aluminium alloys enamandla aphezulu engenakushisa kanye nobuchwepheshe obuhlanganisiwe bokuphonsa insimbi ukuze kuncishiswe izindleko ze-aluminium).
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Mashi-26-2026