Ngokumelene nesizinda sokuntengantenga okuthuthukile emakethe yensimbi yomhlaba wonke, imboni ye-aluminium ibonise izakhiwo ezihlukile zokulwa nama-cyclical ngenxa yezingqinamba eziqinile zenqubomgomo yophahla lwamandla yaseChina kanye nokwanda okuqhubekayo kwesidingo samandla amasha. Ngo-2025, indawo yemakethe yale nsimbi yamasu iba nezinguquko ezinqala, inezingqinamba zamandla okukhiqiza, ukuguqulwa kwamandla, kanye nezinqubomgomo zezwe lezepolitiki ezixhumene, okubumba ipharadigm entsha yokutshala imali ngaphansi kwebhalansi eqinile yesidingo sokunikezwa.
Ukuqina kwenqubomgomo kwakha phansi, kugqamisa umthelela ophahleni womthamo wokukhiqiza waseShayina.
Kusukela ekusetshenzisweni komugqa obomvu wokukhiqiza amathani ayizigidi ezingama-45/ngonyaka ngo-2017, izinga lokusebenzisa umthamo wokukhiqiza i-aluminium e-electrolytic eChina selifinyelele inani elibalulekile lama-98%. Kusukela ngoMashi 2025, amandla okukhiqiza asekhaya asefinyelele amathani ayizigidi ezingama-45.17, futhi izindawo ezinothe ngokuphehlwa ngamanzi njengeYunnan kanye ne-Inner Mongolia seziphenduke inkundla yempi enkulu yokushintshwa kwamandla. Kuyaphawuleka ukuthi izingqinamba zesizini zokuphakelwa kukagesi ngamanzi esifundeni sase-Yunnan sezigqame kakhulu - ukwehlisa ukukhiqizwa ngenkathi eyomile kungase kuthinte u-20% wamandla okusebenza wezwe. Le modeli yokuhlinzeka “encike esimweni sezulu” iholele egebeni lesidingo samathani ayisigidi ezimakethe zendawo. Ngaso leso sikhathi, ukwanda kwamandla okukhiqiza phesheya kuyadonsa kanzima, njengoba i-Europe ibhekene nokuqalwa kabusha kancane kokukhiqiza ngenxa yezindleko eziphezulu zamandla, futhi amazwe anjenge-India neRussia adonsa kanzima ukulungisa ukuncipha kokuphakelwa komhlaba okubangelwa amandla eChina.
Izinguquko zesakhiwo ohlangothini lwesidingo, nethrekhi yamandla entsha iba injini eyinhloko.
Uhlangothi lwesidingo luveza isici esithi “dual track drive”: emikhakheni yakudala, izinqubomgomo zaseShayina zokuvuselela ingqalasizinda zikhuthaza ukukhula kwesidingo se-aluminium sengqalasizinda emisha efana nogesi ophakeme kakhulu kanye nezokuthutha zikaloliwe. Kulindeleke ukuthi ingxenye yokusetshenziswa kwe-aluminium emikhakheni ehlobene izokhuphuka ibe ngu-15% ngo-2025; Ezindaweni ezisafufusa, ukukhanya kwezimoto zikagesi kanye nokwandiswa komthamo ofakiwe we-photovoltaic kuhlanganisa ukukhuphuka okuyinhloko. Idatha ibonisa ukuthi ukusetshenziswa kwe-aluminium yezimoto ezintsha zamandla emotweni ngayinye kukhuphuke izikhathi ezingu-2-3 uma kuqhathaniswa nezimoto ezijwayelekile zikaphethiloli, futhi izinga lokukhula elihlanganisiwe lonyaka lokusetshenziswa kwe-aluminium kumafreyimu namabakaki e-photovoltaic selifinyelele ku-26%. Okuphawuleka kakhulu ukuthi umphumela wokushintsha i-aluminium ekushintsheni kwamandla uyavela kancane kancane, futhi ubuhle bayo be-conductivity ne-lightweight kuguguleka isabelo semakethe sezinto zethusi. I-JPMorgan ibikezela ukuthi izinga lokukhula kwesidingo se-aluminium emhlabeni wonke lizofinyelela ku-4% ngo-2025, liphezulu kakhulu kuno-2.1% wethusi.
Ukuqiniswa kwemidlalo yamanani kanye nokuvela kwamathuba esakhiwo phakathi kokuguquguquka kobubanzi.
Ukusebenza kwamanje kwamanani e-aluminium kuveza izici ezintathu ezinkulu: okokuqala, amanani e-aluminium ye-LME ashintshashintsha ebangeni lika-$2700-2900/ton, okubonisa umdonsiswano phakathi kokulindela ukushoda kwempahla kanye nokungaqiniseki okukhulu; Okwesibili, intengo yasekhaya ye-aluminium ye-Shanghai isekelwa ukulindela kwemikhawulo yokukhiqiza e-Yunnan, futhi uphawu lwe-20000 luye lwaba ukugxila kwemidlalo emifushane ende; Okwesithathu, ukuguquguquka kwamanani e-alumina kuye kwaqina, futhi ukwanda kwamandla okukhiqiza i-bauxite eGuinea kuye kwakha uthango ngokumelene nemingcele yasekhaya yemvelo. Imodeli kaMorgan Stanley ibonisa ukuthi uma kwenzeka ukuphazamiseka okukhulu kokuhlinzekwa, amanani e-aluminium angadlula ku-$ 3000 / ton, kuyilapho ukuwohloka komnotho emhlabeni wonke kungase kufinyelele izinga lezengqondo lika-$ 2000.
Ukuthuthukiswa kwe-matrix yobungozi, okuhlukile okune okukhulu kumele kulandelelwe eduze
Amaphuzu amane amakhulu obungozi okufanele uwaqaphele lapho utshala imali embonini ye-aluminium.
Enye iwukulungiswa kwenqubomgomo yamandla okukhiqiza yaseShayina, okudingeka inake ukucindezelwa komthamo wokukhiqiza odla amandla amaningi ngokuhweba nge-carbon emission.
Okwesibili ukuguquguquka kwamanani entengo yamandla omhlaba, futhi inkinga yegesi yemvelo yase-Europe kanye nokushintshwa kwamandla kagesi e-Yunnan kusuka enkathini emanzi kuya enkathini yokomisa kungase kubangele ukushaqeka kwezindleko.
Okwesithathu, kukhona ukushintsha kwenqubomgomo yezohwebo, futhi kunengozi yokukhokhiswa okuphindaphindiwe kwe-US emikhiqizweni ye-aluminium evela e-China.
Okwesine umphumela wokuhudula we-real estate chain, futhi ukulungiswa kwemakethe yezindlu zaseShayina kungase kubangele ukuncishiswa kwe-8% -10% yesidingo se-aluminium yokwakha.
Isiphakamiso sesu: Bamba ukuqiniseka futhi ugweme izingozi zesakhiwo
1. Okuhlosiwe okuqinile komthamo wokukhiqiza: Gxila emabhizinisini ahamba phambili ezifundeni ezishibhile njenge-Yunnan ne-Xinjiang, amandla azo okukhiqiza ayivelakancane ngaphansi kwengcindezi yokuphehlwa kwamanzi.
2. Isakhiwo sethrekhi yamandla entsha: Okubalulekile kuzonikezwa abahlinzeki bezinto zokwakha ezinenani eliphakeme njengamafreyimu e-photovoltaic namathreyi ebhethri.
3. Ithuba lokuvimba: Khiya inzuzo evela ku-electrolyticukukhiqizwa kwe-aluminiumngesikhathi sewindi lokulungiswa kwentengo ye-alumina.
4. Ukuvikela ubungozi bendawo yezepolitiki: Naka inqubekelaphambili yamaphrojekthi we-Guinea bauxite futhi ugweme izingozi ezivela emthonjeni owodwa wokuhlinzeka.
Ima endaweni ka-2025, imakethe ye-aluminium iyaguquka isuka emikhiqizweni yama-cyclical yendabuko iye ezintweni ezisafufusa zamasu. Imizamo eqhubekayo yenqubomgomo yamandla okukhiqiza yaseShayina kanye nokukhuthazwa okujulile kokuguqulwa kwamandla emhlabeni wonke kwenze le nsimbi imelana nokwehla kwamandla emali futhi yajabulela iprimiyamu yokukhula. Abatshalizimali badinga ukuthola uhlelo lokwabiwa kwesilinganiso sobungozi obungcono kakhulu ezixhumanisini ezinezinhlangothi ezintathu zokuqina kwenqubomgomo, ukuphepha kwamandla, kanye noshintsho lwesidingo.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: May-20-2025