Muva nje, imakethe ye-aluminium yomhlaba wonke ibilokhu ishintshashintsha ngenxa yezindaba ezingazelelwe - i-Iran iqale ukuhlaselwa kwezitshalo ezimbili ze-aluminium e-United Arab Emirates naseBahrain ezihlobene nezimboni zezempi zase-US kanye nezindiza. Lesi sigameko sisheshe saphakamisa ukukhathazeka mayelana nokuvikeleka kokutholakala kwe-aluminium emakethe, sacindezela amanani e-aluminium e-LME (London Metal Exchange) ezinyanga ezintathu ukuba akhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-5%, afinyelela phezulu ku-$3492 ngethani, okuyizinga eliphezulu elisha kusukela ngomhlaka-16 Mashi. Lesi sihloko sizohlinzeka ngokuhlaziywa okujulile kwesizinda semicimbi, umthelela wemakethe, izitayela zesikhathi esizayo, kanye namasu okuphendula.
1, Isizinda salesi sigameko: ukwanda kwezingxabano zezwe nezepolitiki
Lo msebenzi we-Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps uwukuphendula ngqo ekuhlaselweni kwangaphambilini kwe-Israel engqalasizinda yase-Iran, okuhlanganisa nezitshalo zensimbi, izitshalo zikagesi, kanye nezikhungo zenuzi zabantu abavamile. UNgqongqoshe Wezangaphandle wase-Iran u-Alaghi ukhiphe isexwayiso esicacile sokuthi i-Israel izokhokha “intengo enkulu” ngezenzo zayo. Ngokukhetha ukuhlaselaizitshalo ze-aluminiumNjengoba ihlobene kakhulu ne-United States, i-Iran ihlose ngokusobala ukufaka ingcindezi kumfelandawonye we-US Israel ngezindlela zomnotho, kuyilapho futhi iveza ubuthakathaka bemboni ye-aluminium esifundeni saseMpumalanga Ephakathi emidlalweni yezepolitiki.
2. Umthelela Wemakethe: Ukukhathazeka Ngokuhlinzekwa Kwempahla kukhulisa amanani e-aluminium
Isifunda saseMpumalanga Ephakathi, njengesigxobo esibalulekile sokukhiqizwa kwe-aluminium emhlabeni wonke, sibanga cishe u-8% kuya ku-9% womkhiqizo womhlaba, futhi sithumela ngaphandle cishe u-10% wokunikezwa komhlaba wonke. Lokhu kuhlasela kubangele ngqo umonakalo kwezinye izikhungo ze-Emirates Global Aluminum Company kanye ne-Bahrain Aluminum Company, okwaholela ekunciphiseni okukhulu kwamandla okukhiqiza. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ingozi engaba khona yokuphazamiseka kwesiteshi esikhulu sokuthumela se-Strait of Hormuz ivimbele ukungeniswa kwezinto zokusetshenziswa kanye nokuthunyelwa kwemikhiqizo eqediwe, okwandisa kakhulu amathemba emakethe okuntuleka kokunikezwa kwe-aluminium.
Ukungezwani ohlangothini lokunikezwa kubonakala ngokushesha emananini e-aluminium. Kusukela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, amanani e-aluminium ezinyanga ezintathu e-LME akhuphuke cishe ngo-10%, futhi lesi sigameko sibe yimbangela yokwenyuka kwamanani e-aluminium. Abahlaziyi be-Citibank ngaphambilini babikezela ukuthi uma isimo sokunikezwa siqhubeka nokuwohloka, amanani e-aluminium kulindeleke ukuthi akhuphuke afike ku-$4000 ngethani, adlule kakhulu izinga lamanje elingaba ngu-$3300.
3, Umkhuba Wesikhathi Esizayo: Izici eziningi ziyahlangana, ukuguquguquka kwentengo ye-aluminium kuyaqina
1. Izingozi zezombusazwe ziyaqhubeka: Ubudlelwano obushubile phakathi kwe-Iran, i-Israel, ne-United States kunzima ukubuqeda esikhathini esifushane, futhi noma yisiphi isinyathelo sezempi noma izinyathelo zokuziphindiselela zingaphinde zibangele ukwesaba emakethe futhi zikhuphule amanani e-aluminium.
2. Isimo sokubuyiselwa kwempahla: Inqubekela phambili yokulungiswa kwezitshalo ze-aluminium ezonakele, ukubuyiselwa kwempahla eStrait of Hormuz, kanye nesimo sokusebenza kwezinye izitshalo ze-aluminium eMpumalanga Ephakathi kuzothinta ngqo ukuzinza kokunikezwa kwe-aluminium emhlabeni jikelele. Uma ukubuyiselwa kwempahla kuhamba kancane, amanani e-aluminium kulindeleke ukuthi ahlale ephezulu noma akhuphuke kakhulu.
3. Ijubane lokusimama komnotho womhlaba linomthelela oqondile ekudingweni kwe-aluminium. Uma umnotho womhlaba uqhubeka nokusimama, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokwanda kwesidingo se-aluminium embonini yokukhiqiza neyokwakha, uzoqhubeka nokusekela amanani e-aluminium. Ngokuphambene nalokho, uma ukusimama komnotho kwehla, amanani e-aluminium angase abhekane nengcindezi eyehlayo.
4. Inqubomgomo yezimali kanye nokulindela ukwehla kwamandla emali: Ukuqondiswa kwenqubomgomo yezimali kanye nokulindela ukwehla kwamandla emali emazweni amakhulu emhlabeni wonke nakho kuyizinto ezibalulekile ezithinta amanani e-aluminium. Inqubomgomo yezimali exegayo kanye nokulindela ukwehla kwamandla emali okuphezulu ngokuvamile kuzuzisa ekukhuphukeni kwamanani ezimpahla, okuhlanganisa ne-aluminium.
4, Isu Lokuphendula: indlela enengqondo, impendulo eguquguqukayo
Njengoba bebhekene nokushintshashintsha okukhulu kwamanani e-aluminium, ababambiqhaza emakethe kufanele bahlale benengqondo futhi baqaphe eduze ukuguquguquka kwezepolitiki, ukuvuselelwa kwempahla, kanye nesivinini sokululama komnotho womhlaba. Kumabhizinisi okukhiqiza, ukuphathwa kwezingozi kungaqiniswa ngokuvimba izindleko ngokusebenzisa uthango nezinye izindlela; Kubatshalizimali, kuyadingeka ukulungisa amasu abo okutshala imali ngokuvumelana nezimo zemakethe ukuze bagweme ukuphishekela izinzuzo ngokungazi lutho nokuthengisa ukulahlekelwa.
Ukuhlaselwa kwe-Iran ezitshalweni ze-aluminium ezihlobene ne-US e-UAE naseBahrain ngokungangabazeki kushiye i-bomb emakethe ye-aluminium yomhlaba wonke. Ukuthi amanani e-aluminium angalisebenzisa yini leli thuba ukuze abhekane nokwenyuka kwamanani kuncike emiphumeleni ehlangene yezici eziningi. Esimweni semakethe esiyinkimbinkimbi nesishintsha njalo, ukugcina ukuqonda kanye nokuguquguquka ekuphenduleni kuzoba yisihluthulelo sababambiqhaza bemakethe ukubhekana nezinselele futhi babambe amathuba.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Ephreli-03-2026