Ngomhla zingama-27 kuNhlaba, 2025, Ikhomishini Yokulawula Izibambiso Yase-China yagunyaza ngokusemthethweni ukubhaliswa kweingxube ye-aluminiumikusasa nezinketho ku-Shanghai Futures Exchange, okumaka umkhiqizo wokuqala wesikhathi esizayo emhlabeni nge-aluminiyamu egaywe kabusha njengomongo wawo wokungena emakethe yokuphuma kokunye okuvela e-China. Lesi silinganiso ngeke nje simise kabusha indlela yokubeka amanani ochungechunge lwemboni ye-aluminium, kodwa futhi singase sibe ithuluzi elibalulekile lezezimali lokukhuthaza ukuguqulwa kwekhabhoni ephansi embonini yomhlaba wonke ye-aluminium.
Umthelela omkhulu ochungechungeni lwemboni ye-aluminium
Impumelelo Ekumisweni Kwemboni Ye-Aluminium Esenziwe Kabusha
Njengomkhiqizi omkhulu emhlabeni wonke kanye nomthengi wama-aluminium alloys (ekhiqizwa amathani ayizigidi ezingu-6.2 kanye nokusetshenziswa kwamathani ayizigidi ezingu-6.73 ngo-2024), imboni ye-aluminium yaseChina egaywe kabusha kade ibhekene nenkinga yokudideka kwendlela yokubeka amanani. U-Cheng Huawei, umphathi weHhovisi likaNobhala we-Guangdong Hongjin New Materials Group, uveze ukuthi amakhasimende angezansi anesidingo esinamandla sama-oda wokukhiya amanani, kodwa ngenxa yokuntuleka kwezinhlobo zesikhathi esizayo ze-aluminium ezigaywe kabusha, amabhizinisi angathembela kuphela ekusaseni lokuqala le-aluminium noma ama-oda okudlulisela phambili ukukhiya amanani, okuholela ezingozini zokuphambuka kwentengo. Ukwethulwa kwekusasa le-aluminium alloy kuzovala lesi sigebe ngokuqondile, kuzuze ukuhlotshaniswa kwentengo phakathi kwe-aluminium egaywe kabusha ne-aluminium eyinhloko, futhi kukhuthaze inqubo yokumiswa kwemboni.
Ukuqamba okusha kumathuluzi okulawula ubungozi
Ukufakwa kuhlu kwamathuluzi ekusasa nezinketho kunikeza izindlela ezintsha zamabhizinisi echungechunge lwe-aluminium ukuze avimbele ukuguquguquka kwentengo. Uma sithatha amabhizinisi e-aluminiyamu agaywe kabusha njengesibonelo, ingxenye ye-aluminium eyizinsimbi ezindlekweni zawo zempahla eluhlaza idlula u-70%, futhi uhla lokuguquguquka kwamanani entengo ye-aluminium ye-scrap luhlala luphakeme kune-electrolytic aluminium. Ngemakethe yekusasa, izinkampani zingafinyelela:
I-Hedging: Khiya izindleko zokuthengwa kwezinto ezingavuthiwe nezintengo zokuthengiswa komkhiqizo ukuze ugweme ubungozi bokuguquguquka kwentengo yensimbi.
Ukuphathwa kwempahla: Ukusebenzisa amarisidi esitolo sesikhathi esizayo ukuze kuncishiswe ingcindezi yezimpahla zangaphandle kwesizini nokwandisa iziteshi zokuthengisa.
Ukuqamba okusha ngezimali: Ukusebenzisa amarisidi e-warehouse yesikhathi esizayo njengesibambiso ukuze kutholwe uxhaso lwezimali olushibhile nokuthuthukisa uchungechunge lwemali.
I-accelerator yokuguqulwa kwekhabhoni ephansi
Ama-alloys e-aluminium asakazwayo ikakhulukazi kusebenzisa i-aluminium eyizinsimbi njengempahla eluhlaza, futhi ukukhiqiza ithani elingu-1 le-aluminiyamu egaywe kabusha kunganciphisa ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni ngaphezu kuka-95%, okuyindlela eyinhloko yokuguqulwa kwekhabhoni ephansi embonini ye-aluminium yomhlaba wonke. U-Wang Jian, iPhini Likamongameli we-China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, ugcizelele ukuthi amathuluzi esikhathi esizayo azoqondisa imali ezoqoqwa embonini ye-aluminium eluhlaza, futhi asheshise uguquko lwemboni yekhabhoni ephansi ngokusebenzisa indlela yokudlulisa “yesiginali yokwabiwa kwezimboni zokuthuthukiswa kwezimboni”.
Ukwakhiwa Kabusha Kwephethini Yemakethe Yekusasa
1. Impi yamandla entengo
U-Wang Rong, umsizi womqondisi we-Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, ubikezela ukuthi ukufakwa kuhlu kwekusasa lengxubevange ye-aluminium kuzobekela inselele ukubusa kwamanani entengo e-London Metal Exchange (LME) ngamanani e-aluminium.
Isizathu ukuthi:
Ukukhiqizwa kwe-aluminium esenziwe kabusha yaseChina kubala u-57% yenani eliphelele lomhlaba, futhi imikhiqizo yesikhathi esizayo ikhombisa ngqo isidingo emakethe yase-Asia.
Ukuqamba okusha ekwakhiweni komkhiqizo wokulethwa: Uhlelo oluhlongozwayo olukabili lokulethwa “lwezingothi ze-aluminium ezigaywe kabusha+ama-aluminium alloy bar” esikhathini esidlule luhambisana kakhulu nezidingo zangempela zamabhizinisi ase-Asia.
Ukwesekwa kwenzuzo yenqubomgomo: Ngaphansi kwemigomo ye-China “yekhabhoni embaxambili”, imikhiqizo ye-aluminium eluhlaza izothokozela izinxephezelo zentela, ithuthukise igunya lezintengo zesikhathi esizayo.
2. Ushintsho lwesakhiwo lwababambe iqhaza
Kulindeleke ukuthi imakethe yekusasa izokwethula amaqembu amathathu amakhulu abambe iqhaza:
Amabhizinisi ochungechunge lwezimboni: izincibilikisi ze-aluminium, amabhizinisi okucubungula i-aluminium agaywe kabusha, abakhiqizi bezingxenye zezimoto, njll., ngengxenye elindelekile engaphezu kuka-60%.
Izikhungo zokutshalwa kwezimali: Izimali ze-CTA, izikhwama ze-commodity hedge funds, zisebenzisa ukuguquguquka kwentengo ukukhiqiza imbuyiselo.
Abathengisi bemingcele: Ngokwenziwa kwemakethe yekusasa yaseChina yamazwe ngamazwe, izinkampani eziseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, eMpumalanga Ephakathi, nezinye izifunda ezisebenzisa i-aluminium egaywe kabusha zizobamba iqhaza ku-arbitrage.
Umsebenzi wokuthola amanani othuthukisiwe
Imakethe yamanje yabalingisiama-alloys e-aluminiumayinakho intengo ehlanganisiwe, ngokwehlukana kwamanani esifunda ngokuvamile afinyelela ku-500 yuan/ton. Ngemuva kokuthi imakethe yesikhathi esizayo ifakwe ohlwini, ukubonakala kwentengo kuzothuthukiswa kakhulu ngokubhida okumaphakathi kanye nezindlela zokulethwa. Ngokusekelwe kokuhlangenwe nakho kokufakwa kuhlu kwe-rebar yekusasa, kulindeleke ukuthi izintengo zesikhathi esizayo zibe ibhentshimakhi yentengo ngaphezu kuka-80% wohwebo lwe-aluminium olugaywe kabusha lwezwe phakathi neminyaka emi-3.
Ukubaluleka kwamasu kanye nemininingwane yemboni
Ipharadigm entsha yokusebenzela umnotho wangempela
Njengoba kushiwo kumagazini odlule, i-foundry aluminium alloy futures izobambelela ekumisweni "kokusebenzela ukuthuthukiswa kohlaza" futhi iphoqelele ukuthuthukiswa kwezimboni ngokubeka izindinganiso eziqinile zekhwalithi zemikhiqizo yokulethwa (njengokuqukethwe ukungcola kanye nezakhiwo zemishini). Lokhu kuvumelana nezimfuneko ze-carbon footprint ye-European Union's Carbon Border Tax (CBAM) ngemikhiqizo ye-aluminium engenisiwe, okusiza imboni ye-aluminium yase-China ithuthukise ukuncintisana kwayo kwamanye amazwe.
Ukuma Kabusha I-Global Aluminium Market Landscape
Ukukhula kwemboni ye-aluminium egaywe kabusha yase-China kubhala kabusha ukunikezwa kwe-aluminium yomhlaba wonke kanye nemephu yokufunwa kwayo. Ngo-2024, ingxenye yokukhiqizwa kabusha kwe-aluminium e-China kuya ku-aluminium eyinhloko isifinyelele ku-22%, kanti isilinganiso somhlaba wonke singu-15% kuphela. Ukuthuthukiswa kwezinsimbi zesikhathi esizayo kuzosheshisa le nqubo, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi ngo-2030, ingxenye yokukhiqizwa kabusha kwe-aluminium e-China izodlula u-35%, iqhubeke nokucindezela indawo yemakethe ye-carbon aluminium ephezulu yaphesheya.
Isambulo se-Derivative Innovation
Ukwethulwa kwekusasa le-aluminium alloy kunikeze imodeli yokuhweba kwesikhathi esizayo kwezinye izinhlobo zensimbi ezigaywe kabusha, ezifana nekhopha egaywe kabusha nezinc. Umqondo owumongo uwukufaka izinsiza “zezimayini zasemadolobheni” ohlelweni lokubeka amanani ezimpahla kanye nokugqugquzela ukuthuthukiswa komnotho oyindilinga ngokusungula izinto ezintsha zezimali.
Sekukonke, ukufakwa kuhlu kwekusasa nezinketho ze-aluminium alloy akuyona nje ingqophamlando entsha emakethe yokuphuma kokunye yaseChina ukuze isebenzele umnotho wangempela, kodwa futhi ingqalasizinda yezezimali eyinhloko yokuguqulwa kwekhabhoni ephansi embonini ye-aluminium yomhlaba wonke. Ngokwakhiwa kwenethiwekhi yendawo yokugcina izimpahla kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwezindlela zokuthengiselana eziwela umngcele, lokhu kuhlukahluka kulindeleke ukuthi kube isikhungo samanani entengo yensimbi engeyona ayoni esinomthelela omkhulu endaweni yesikhathi sase-Asia, simise kabusha i-logic yokusabalalisa inani lochungechunge lwemboni ye-aluminium yomhlaba wonke.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: May-29-2025