Ⅰ. Isiphetho sokukhiqiza: "Indida yokwanda" ye-alumina ne-electrolytic aluminium
1. I-Alumina: Inkinga Yeziboshwa Yokukhula Okuphezulu kanye Nempahla Ephezulu
Ngokusho kwedatha evela ku-National Bureau of Statistics, ukukhiqizwa kwe-alumina yaseChina kwafinyelela amathani ayizigidi ezingu-7.475 ngoMashi 2025 (+ 10.3% unyaka nonyaka), ngokukhiqizwa okuhlanganisiwe kwamathani ayizigidi ezingu-22.596 ngekota yokuqala (+12.0% unyaka nonyaka). Ngaphandle kokukhula okuqhubekayo kokukhiqiza, imakethe isiwele emjikelezweni ononya “wokukhulisa umkhiqizo ngaphandle kokukhuphula imali engenayo”
Ukugcwala ngokweqile kuyaqina:Ukusungula kwe-alumina yasekhaya kwe-alumina kudlule amathani ayizigidi ezingu-3.958, kuhambisana nengcindezi yokuvulwa kwewindi lokungenisa (intengo yase-Australia ye-FOB yehlele ku-$373/ton), futhi izintengo zamabala zehle ngaphansi komugqa wezindleko zemali esifundeni sase-Shanxi (3250 yuan/ton).
Izingcindezi zezindleko zokunciphisa ukukhiqiza:Izitshalo ze-Alumina e-Henan, eGuizhou nakwezinye izifunda seziqalile ukulungiswa ngenxa yokulahlekelwa kwemali, okuholele ekwehleni kwenyanga ngo-2.85% kumthamo wokusebenza kuya kumathani ayizigidi ezingama-88.6 ngonyaka ngoMashi. Kodwa-ke, ukukhishwa kwamathani ayizigidi ezingu-1 zomthamo omusha wokukhiqiza e-Indonesia kuye kwakhuphula umthamo oweqile emhlabeni wonke.
2. I-Aluminiyamu ye-Electrolytic: "ibhalansi eqinile" ngaphansi kwesilingi samandla okukhiqiza
Ukukhiqizwa kwe-aluminium ye-electrolytic ngo-March kwaba amathani ayizigidi ezingu-3.746 (+ 4.4% unyaka nonyaka), kanti ukukhiqizwa okuhlanganisiwe kwikota yokuqala kwaba amathani ayizigidi ezingu-11.066 (+3.2% unyaka nonyaka). Naphezu kokuqalwa kabusha kokukhiqiza esifundeni esiseningizimu-ntshonalanga (uYunnan Hongtai egcine umthamo ogcwele wokukhiqiza amathani ayizigidi eziyi-1.5), ukunwebeka kokuhlinzeka kuvinjelwa yizinqubomgomo.
Ukushintshwa kwamandla kuyabusa:I-Sichuan, i-Guangxi nezinye izifunda ziqala kabusha ukukhiqiza ikakhulukazi ngokushintshwa kwamandla, kuyilapho amandla okukhiqiza e-Baotou Aluminium amadala ayahoxiswa ukuze kuncishiswe ukwanda, okuholela ekukhuleni okulinganiselwe kokuhlinzekwa kwenetha.
Ukuncipha kwempahla kuyasheshisa:Ekuqaleni kuka-April, i-inventory social ye-electrolytic aluminium yehla yaba amathani angu-744000 (unyaka nonyaka -138000 amathani), kanye nokusungula kwe-LME nakho kwabuyela emuva ku-459000 amathani, okusekela ukuqina kwamanani e-aluminium.
Ⅱ. Ohlangothini lwesidingo: "ukuqhekeka kwesakhiwo" phakathi kwamathrekhi endabuko kanye nasafufusa
1. Inkundla yendabuko: Ukubulala kabili kwezakhiwo kanye nokuthekelisa
Uchungechunge lwezindlu ezithengiswayo luyaqhubeka nokuncipha:kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya ku-March, inkomba yendawo yokuthengisa yezindlu zezentengiselwano yayisebangeni "elibandayo", izinga lokwakhiwa kwephrofayili yokwakha lalingama-61% kuphela, futhi izinga lokukhula kokukhiqizwa kwe-aluminium (1.3%) laliphansi kakhulu kunezinga lokukhula kwe-electrolytic aluminium supply.
Ukuthekelisa kubhekene nokuhlaselwa kwentela:Izintengo ze-aluminium zase-US eChina zikhuphuke zisuka ku-104% zaya ku-145%, kanti ukuthunyelwa kwe-aluminium kwamanye amazwe ngoJanuwari nangoFebhuwari kwehle ngo-4.5% unyaka nonyaka. Izinkampani ziphendukela ekuhwebeni kwezokuthutha kwe-Southeast Asian njengendawo ephephile.
2. Amandla amasha kanye nokukhiqiza okuphezulu: isidingo sezinjini ezintsha
Ukukhula okuqhumayo kweingxube ye-aluminium:NgoMashi, ukukhiqizwa kwe-aluminium alloy kwafinyelela amathani ayizigidi ezingu-1.655 (unyaka nonyaka+16.2%), eqhutshwa yi-lightweight yezimoto ezintsha zamandla (i-magnesium aluminium substitution esheshisiwe) kanye nesidingo samafreyimu we-photovoltaic (ukuzuza kunqubomgomo entsha yentengo kagesi wasekhaya).
Intuthuko ekwenziweni kwasendaweni kwezinto ze-aluminium ezisezingeni eliphezulu: Ukuhlolwa kwe-Dongqing Special Materials ngempumelelo kukhiqize izikhala zezintambo zokushisela ze-magnesium ephezulu, ama-oda abakaki be-aluminium alloy e-Longi Corporation anyuke ngo-35% unyaka nonyaka, futhi ukushintshwa kokungenisa kwamanye amazwe kwasheshisa izinkambu zokufaka izicelo ezisezingeni eliphezulu.
Ⅲ.Izindleko Nentengo: Ukuwa kwe-Alumina vs. Ukunwetshwa Kwenzuzo Ye-Electrolytic Aluminium
1. Ukwakhiwa kabusha kwejika lezindleko
I-Aluminium oxide iwele 'ekujikeni kokufa':izintengo zasekhaya ze-bauxite zixegisiwe (zehle ngo-5% ngenyanga esifundeni saseJin Yu), izindleko zezinto ezisizayo ezifana nesoda ye-caustic namalahle zinciphile, futhi izindleko ezilinganiselwe embonini zehle zaya ku-3158 yuan/ton, kodwa amanani ehle ngokushesha nakakhulu (amanani e-Shanxi spot awele ngaphansi kuka-3000 yuan/ton).
Ukunwetshwa komkhawulo wenzuzo ye-electrolytic aluminium:Ingxenye yezindleko ze-alumina yehle yafinyelela ku-40% (55% ngo-2024), inzuzo enesisindo yomkhakha we-electrolytic aluminium isifinyelele ku-3700 yuan/ton, kanti umkhawulo wenzuzo enkulu yamabhizinisi enzuzo ka-Yunnan hydropower (afana ne-Yunnan Aluminium Co., Ltd.) yeqe u-25%.
2. Ukwenyuka kokuhlukaniswa kwentengo
I-alumina oscillation iphuma phansi:Umthelela wemithombo enenani eliphansi phesheya kwezilwandle (i-Indonesia yengeza amathani ayizigidi eziyisi-6.5 zamandla okukhiqiza azotshalwa) kanye nokukhululwa kwamandla amasha okukhiqiza asekhaya (iphrojekthi ka-Guangxi yamathani ayizigidi ezi-2 ifinyelela ekukhiqizweni okugcwele ngo-April) kucindezele isikhala sokubuyela emuva, futhi uhla lokusebenza olulindelekile lwekota yesibili luyi-2800-3200 yuan/ton.
Ukuqina okuphezulu kwe-aluminium electrolytic:Amanani e-aluminium ye-LME ahlala ezinzile ebangeni lama-2450-2550 amadola ase-US/ton, futhi inkontileka eyinhloko ye-aluminium yase-Shanghai isekelwa uhlu lwezimpahla oluphansi kanye nokulindelwe kwenqubomgomo (uxhaso “lokuvuselela izinto zokusebenza” lwasekhaya), okuhloswe ngalo kwesikhashana okungu-20500 yuan/ton.
Ⅳ. Ukuhwebelana Kwamazwe Ngamazwe Nenqubomgomo: Intengo 'ye-Grey Rhino' kanye Nokuguqulwa Kokuhlaza
1. I-Impact chain of China US tariff game
Ukuhlelwa kabusha kochungechunge lwemboni yezimoto:Izwe laseMelika libeke intela engama-25% ezimotweni ezingeniswa kwamanye amazwe, okuphoqe imboni yakwaTesla yaseMexico ukuthi ihlehlise ukukhiqizwa. Ingxenye ye-aluminium yaseShayina ethunyelwa e-United States yehlele ku-5% (izinkampani ezifana ne-Wan'an Technology zisheshisa ukushintshela kwazo emakethe yaseYurophu).
Isu Lokudlulisa I-Rusal:Njengoba isikhathi sokukhululwa se-EU seRusal sisondela, iRusal isheshisa ukudluliselwa kwayo ezindaweni zokugcina izimpahla zase-Asia (ithumela amathani angu-154000 e-alumina eRussia ngoMashi), kanti uhlu lwe-LME lwe-Rusal lukhuphuke lwafinyelela ku-82%.
2. Ukungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni kuqhuba ukuthuthukiswa kwezimboni
Uhlelo lokulinga lokugunyazwa kwe-carbon footprint seluqalisiwe:Isitifiketi sokulebula i-baise electrolytic aluminium carbon seyenziwe, futhi okuhlosiwe komthamo wokukhiqiza i-aluminiyamu egaywe kabusha inyusiwe yaba amathani ayizigidi ezingu-6 ngonyaka (nge-premium ye-Alcoa ye-aluminium ephansi ye-aluminium efinyelela ku-15%).
Umdlalo wezindleko zikagesi:Izintengo zegesi yemvelo yase-Europe ziphinde zanyuka zaba ngama-euro angu-35/megawatt ngehora, futhi ukuqaliswa kabusha kokukhiqizwa efektri yaseJalimane yase-Trimet Aluminium kubambezelekile. Ukuzinza kwamandla kagesi wasekhaya e-Yunnan sekuphenduke indawo engcuphe yokuhlinzeka.
Ⅴ. I-Outlook yesikhathi esizayo: Umdlalo ombaxambili wensalela noguquko
1. I-Alumina: Ukuqedwa okuqhutshwa ukulahlekelwa, gxila ekwehliseni ukukhiqizwa okungatheni
Uma intengo iqhubeka nokuba ngaphansi kuka-3000 yuan/ton, isikali sokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kwikota yesibili singase sifinyelele amathani ayizigidi ezingu-2/ngonyaka, kodwa amandla amasha okukhiqiza ase-Indonesia angase asuse umphumela wokuncipha kokuhlinzeka.
Isu lesu: Valela izindleko zesikhathi eside zempahla eluhlaza ngamanani aphezulu futhi unake i-China Aluminium Corporation (601600. SH), enezimayini zayo.
2. I-Electrolytic aluminium: amathuba esakhiwo ngaphansi kwe-inventory ephansi kanye nezinzuzo zenqubomgomo
Ukwanda kwaminyaka yonke kwesidingo samandla amasha (izimoto ze-photovoltaic + ezintsha zamandla) zingamathani angama-800000 kuye kwayisigidi esingu-1, okunciphisa ukwehla kwezinkambu zendabuko. Isikhungo senani le-aluminium kulindeleke ukuthi silondoloze i-19500 kuya ku-21500 yuan/ton.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Apr-22-2025