I-London Metal Exchange (LME) yokusungula i-aluminium iyaqhubeka nokwehla, yehla yaya kumathani angu-322000 kusukela ngo-June 17, ishaya kancane kusukela ngo-2022 kanye nokwehla okubukhali kwama-75% kusukela phezulu eminyakeni emibili edlule. Ngemuva kwale datha kunomdlalo ojulile wokuhlinzeka kanye nephethini yesidingo emakethe ye-aluminium: iprimiyamu yendawo ye-aluminium yezinyanga ezintathu ishintshile isuka kwisaphulelo sika-$42/ton ngo-Ephreli yaya kuprimiyamu, futhi izindleko zokunweba ebusuku zikhuphuke zafinyelela ku-$12.3/ton, okubonisa ingcindezi yezikhundla ezinde zokuminyanisa izikhundla.
Inkinga ye-Inventory: ukwehla kwe-liquidity kuhlanganiswe nemidlalo ye-geopolitical
Kusukela ngoJuni, amathani ayi-150 kuphela amaresidi e-warehouse abhaliselwe i-LME aluminium, futhi izingxenye ezimbili kwezintathu zohlu olukhona yi-aluminium yaseRussia evinjelwe yi-US ne-UK. I-China yasheshisa ukumuncwa kwamathani angama-741000 e-aluminium yaseRussia kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya ku-Ephreli, okuwukunyuka konyaka ngama-48%. Kodwa-ke, umthamo wasekhaya wokukhiqiza i-aluminiyamu ye-electrolytic ususondele ekubekweni kwenqubomgomo kumathani ayizigidi ezingama-45, futhi uhlu lwesikhathi esidlule lwehle ngokuhambisanayo lwaba ngaphansi kwezinyanga eziyi-16. Ngaphansi kwengcindezi yokunikezwa kanye nesidingo, i-liquidity yemakethe ye-aluminium ibonisa inkambiso "yokubulala okukabili".
Ukuhlelwa Kabusha Kwezohwebo: Izinto Eziguquguqukayo Ezifihliwe Ekugelezeni Kwe-Aluminiyamu Kadoti
Iphethini yokuhweba yomhlaba wonke ye-aluminium eyizinsimbi iba noshintsho olukhulu: i-United States isebenzisa ukukhululwa ezindlekweni ukuze ihehe ukubuyiswa kwe-aluminiyamu endala, okunomthelela ekuhlelweni kwemboni ye-aluminium egaywe kabusha yase-China. Imininingwane ikhombisa ukuthi ukukhiqizwa kwe-aluminium esenziwe kabusha yaseChina kuzofinyelela kumathani ayizigidi eziyi-10.5 ngo-2024, okuzobalelwa ku-20% wesamba esiphelele se-aluminium. Kodwa-ke, imingcele eqinayo yokungenisa emazweni aseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia iphoqe izinkampani zaseShayina ukuthi zimise izimboni eMalaysia naseThailand ukuze zicubungule imfucuza esezingeni eliphansi. Ngaso leso sikhathi, i-European Union ikhuthaza ukuzimela ngokugaywa kabusha kwe-aluminiyamu eyizinsimbi, futhi ingxenye yase-Japan ye-aluminium egaywe kabusha ifinyelele ku-100%. Umncintiswano womhlaba wonke we-aluminium enekhabhoni ephansi uya ushuba kakhulu.
Uguquko lwemboni: isidingo esihambisanayo kanye nezingqinamba zenqubomgomo
Ukuguqulwa kwesakhiwo se-China Aluminium Industry kuyakhula ngesivinini: Ngo-2024, ingxenye yemikhiqizo enenani eliphakeme efana nezindiza.amapuleti e-aluminiumkanye namafoil ebhethri anamandla ekukhiqizeni i-aluminium engamathani ayizigidi ezingama-42 azokhuphuka afike ku-35%. Ingxenye ye-aluminium esetshenziswa ezimotweni zamandla amasha isuke ku-3% ngo-2020 yaya ku-12%, yaba injini eyinhloko yokukhula kwesidingo. Kodwa-ke, ukuncika kwangaphandle kwe-bauxite kudlula u-70%, umthamo we-aluminiyamu ye-electrolytic unomkhawulo, futhi uhambisana nengcindezi ye-EU Carbon Border Tax (CBAM), ukunwetshwa kwemboni kubhekene nezingqinamba ze-multidimensional.
Umbono wesikhathi esizayo: Izinselele zesakhiwo enkathini yokusungula okuphansi
Ukuhlaziywa kuphakamisa ukuthi indlela yamanje yokuminyanisa i-aluminium ye-LME idlule ukuqagela kwesikhashana futhi yashintsha yaba isivivinyo sokucindezeleka sokuqina kochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwe-aluminium emhlabeni wonke. Uma isimo esiphansi se-inventory siqhubeka, imakethe ingase isuke “ku-cyclical surplus” iye “kukushoda kwesakhiwo”. Amabhizinisi adinga ukuqaphela umthelela oyinhlanganisela wezingozi zezwe, izinguquko zenqubomgomo yezohwebo, nemikhawulo yamandla, kanye nempumelelo yobuchwepheshe be-aluminium obugaywe kabusha kanye nokwenza kwasendaweni kwezinto ezisezingeni eliphezulu kungase kube ukhiye wokugqashuka.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jun-26-2025