Okwamanjeimboni ye-aluminiumisingene ephethini elisha "lokuqina kokunikezwa + ukuqina kwesidingo", futhi ukwenyuka kwentengo kusekelwa yizisekelo eziqinile. UMorgan Stanley ubikezela ukuthi amanani e-aluminium azofinyelela ku-$3250/ton kwikota yesibili ka-2026, kanti umqondo oyinhloko ujikeleza izinzuzo ezimbili zegebe lokunikezwa kanye nesidingo kanye nemvelo enkulu.
Uhlangothi lokuphakelwa: Ukwandiswa kwamandla kunqunyelwe, ukunwebeka kuyaqhubeka nokwehla
Umthamo wokukhiqiza i-aluminium kagesi waseShayina usufinyelele ophahleni lwamathani ayizigidi ezingu-45, ngomthamo wokusebenza wamathani ayizigidi ezingu-43.897 ngo-2025 kanye nesilinganiso sokusetshenziswa esingu-97.55%, cishe ngomthamo ogcwele, kanti kunesikhala esisha esingaba yizigidi ezingu-1 kuphela esengeziwe.
Ukukhula kwamandla okukhiqiza kwamanye amazwe kubuthakathaka, ngesilinganiso sokukhula sonyaka esingu-1.5% kuphela kusukela ngo-2025 kuya ku-2027. IYurophu iyaqhubeka nokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa ngenxa yamanani aphezulu kagesi, kuyilapho iNyakatho Melika inqunyelwe ekwandeni ngenxa yokuncintisana kwamandla ezikhungweni zedatha ze-AI. I-Indonesia neMpumalanga Ephakathi kuphela ezinokwenyuka okuncane kodwa zivinjelwe yingqalasizinda.
Ukuguqulwa okuluhlaza kanye nezindleko zikagesi ezikhuphukayo kuye kwakhuphula umkhawulo wemboni, kwanda isilinganiso sikagesi oluhlaza eShayina futhi kwaqalisa intela yekhabhoni eNhlanganweni YaseYurophu, okucindezela kakhulu indawo yokuhlala yamandla okukhiqiza abiza kakhulu.
Uhlangothi lwesidingo: Amasimu akhulayo ayaqhuma, inani eliphelele likhula kancane kancane
Izinga lokukhula elimaphakathi lonyaka lesidingo se-aluminium somhlaba wonke lingu-2% -3%, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi lifinyelele amathani ayizigidi ezingu-770-78 ngo-2026. Amasimu asafufusa njengezimoto ezintsha zamandla, isitoreji samandla se-photovoltaic, kanye nezikhungo zedatha ze-AI sezibe amandla amakhulu okuqhuba.
Ukwanda kwezinga lokungena kwezimoto ezintsha zamandla kuholele ekukhuleni kokusetshenziswa kwe-aluminium ngemoto ngayinye (ngaphezu kuka-30% ngaphezu kokwezimoto zikaphethiloli), kanti ukwanda kwaminyaka yonke kwamandla afakiwe e-photovoltaic angaphezu kuka-20% kuye kwasekela isidingo se-aluminium. Isidingo emikhakheni yezikhungo zamandla kanye nokupakisha siye salandela njalo.
Ingxenye yokuhlanganiswa kwe-aluminium ngqo namanzi inyuswe yaba ngaphezu kuka-90%, okunciphisa ukutholakala kwe-aluminium ingots esitokweni futhi kwandise isimo semakethe esinzima.
Izimpawu ze-Macro nezemakethe: ama-resonance amaningi amahle
Ukulindela ukwehliswa kwenzalo emhlabeni wonke kusobala, futhi ngaphansi komkhuba wedola laseMelika elibuthakathaka, amanani e-aluminium abizwa ngamadola aseMelika anokusekelwa okukhuphukayo kwemvelo.
Isidingo sabatshalizimali sezimpahla ezibonakalayo siyakhula, futhi izinsimbi ezingezona i-ferrous, njengenketho yokulwa nokwehla kwamandla emali kanye nokwabiwa kwezimpahla ezahlukahlukene, zidonsela imali engenayo.
Isilinganiso sentengo yethusi/ye-aluminium siphezulu kakhulu kohlu lwakamuva, siba yisibonakaliso esibalulekile sokukhuphuka kwamanani e-aluminium okulandelayo.
Amathrendi Esikhathi Esizayo Semboni: Ukugqamisa Amathuba Esakhiwo
Igebe lokufunwa kokunikezwa kwempahla liyakhula kancane kancane, futhi uMorgan Stanley ubikezela ukuthi ukushoda kokunikezwa kwempahla kuzobonakala kusukela ngo-2026 kuqhubeke, kanti izinqolobane zomhlaba wonke zisezingeni eliphansi ngokomlando, okwandisa kakhulu ukuguquguquka kwentengo.
Ukwehluka kwesifunda kuyakhula, igebe lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla eShayina liyakhula unyaka nonyaka, futhi ukuncika ekungenisweni kwempahla kuyanda, okwakha ukugeleza kokuhweba “kwezingcezu ze-aluminium ezingaphezulu kwamanye amazwe → eShayina”.
Inzuzo yezimboni igxile emabhizinisini aholayo anemithombo yamandla aluhlaza kanye nezinzuzo zezindleko zamandla, kuyilapho amandla okukhiqiza eshintshela ezifundeni ezingabizi kakhulu njenge-Indonesia neMpumalanga Ephakathi, kodwa intuthuko ihamba kancane kunokulindelekile.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Disemba-19-2025