Ngokusho kwedatha yokusungula ye-aluminium ekhishwe yiLondon Metal Exchange (LME) kanye ne-Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), ngo-March 21, i-LME yokusungula i-aluminium yawela amathani angu-483925, ishaya kancane kusukela ngoMeyi 2024; Ngakolunye uhlangothi, uhlu lwe-aluminium ye-Shanghai Futures Exchange's (SHFE) lwehle ngo-6.95% masonto onke lwaya kumathani angu-233240, okubonisa iphethini yokuhlukanisa “yokuqina ngaphandle nokuxega ngaphakathi”. Le datha ihluke kakhulu ekusebenzeni okuqinile kwezintengo ze-aluminium ye-LME ezinza ku-$2300/ton kanye nezinkontileka eziyinhloko ze-aluminium yase-Shanghai ezikhuphuka ngo-20800 yuan/ton ngosuku olufanayo, okubonisa umdlalo oyinkimbinkimbi womhlaba.imboni ye-aluminiumiketango elingaphansi kokuhlinzekwa kanye nokuhlelwa kabusha kwesidingo kanye nokuncintisana kwezepolotiki.
Izinga eliphansi lezinyanga eziyishumi lokusungula kwe-aluminium ye-LME empeleni liwumphumela wokuvumelana phakathi kwengxabano yaseRussia-Ukraine kanye nenqubomgomo yokuthekelisa yase-Indonesia. Ngemuva kokulahlekelwa yimakethe yayo yaseYurophu ngenxa yenswinyo, iRusal yadlulisela ukuthunyelwa kwayo e-Asia. Kodwa-ke, ukuvinjelwa kokuthekelisa kwe-bauxite okwenziwa yi-Indonesia ngo-2025 kuholele ekuqinisweni kokuhlinzekwa kwe-alumina yomhlaba wonke, okukhuphule ngokungaqondile izindleko zokusungula ze-aluminium ye-LME. Idatha ibonisa ukuthi ngoJanuwari nangoFebruwari 2025, ukuthunyelwa kwe-bauxite yase-Indonesia kwehle ngo-32% unyaka nonyaka, kuyilapho amanani entengo e-alumina yase-Australia enyuka ngo-18% unyaka nonyaka aya ku-$3200/ton, okuqhubekisela phambili ukucindezela amamajini enzuzo yabancibilikisi baphesheya kwezilwandle. Ohlangothini lwesidingo, abakhiqizi bezimoto baseYurophu baye basheshisa ukudluliswa kwemigqa yokukhiqiza eChina ukuze bagweme izingozi ze-tariff, beqhuba ukwanda kwe-210% unyaka nonyaka ekuthengisweni kwe-aluminiyamu ye-electrolytic yaseChina (okungeniswa kwamanye amazwe kufinyelela amathani angu-610000 ngoJanuwari noFebruwari). Lokhu' ukufakwa ngaphakathi kwesidingo sangaphandle 'kwenza uhlu lwe-LME lube inkomba ebucayi ebonisa ukuphakelwa kwamazwe ngamazwe nokungqubuzana kwesidingo.
Ukubuyiselwa kabusha kwe-inventory ye-aluminium yasekhaya yase-Shanghai kuhlobene eduze nomjikelezo wokukhishwa kwamandla okukhiqiza kanye nokulungiswa kokulindela inqubomgomo. Ukunciphisa ukukhiqizwa (cishe amathani angu-500000) okubangelwa ukushoda kwamandla kagesi e-Yunnan, eSichuan nakwezinye izindawo akuzange kubonakale ngokugcwele, kuyilapho amandla okukhiqiza asanda kufakwa (amathani angu-600000) ezindaweni ezingabizi kakhulu njenge-Inner Mongolia ne-Xinjiang ingene esikhathini sokukhiqiza. Umthamo wokusebenza kwe-aluminiyamu ye-electrolytic yasekhaya isikhuphukele kumathani ayizigidi ezingu-42, yafinyelela ezingeni eliphezulu lomlando. Nakuba ukusetshenziswa kwe-aluminium ezindlini kukhuphuke ngo-2.3% unyaka nonyaka ngoJanuwari nangoFebhuwari, uxhaxha lwezindlu ezithengiswayo olubuthakathaka (nokuncipha konyaka nonyaka ngo-10% endaweni eqediwe yezindlu zohwebo) kanye nokwehla kokuthunyelwa kwempahla yasendlini ngaphandle (-8% unyaka nonyaka ngoJanuwari nangoFebhuwari) kuholele ekusaleleni okukhulu kwempahla. Kuyaphawuleka ukuthi izinga lokukhula lokutshalwa kwezimali kwingqalasizinda yasekhaya ngoMashi lidlule obekulindelekile (+12.5% unyaka nonyaka ngoJanuwari nangoFebhuwari), futhi ukugcinwa kwangaphambi kwesikhathi kweminye imiklamo yengqalasizinda kukhuthaze ukwenyuka kwenyanga ngo-15% ngenyanga kuma-oda wephrofayili ye-aluminium, okuchaza ukuqina kwe-rebound yesikhathi esifushane e-Shanghai aluminium yokusungula.
Ngokombono wezindleko, ulayini wezindleko ophelele we-aluminiyamu ye-electrolytic yasekhaya uhlala uzinzile ku-16500 yuan/ton, ngamanani e-anode abhakwe ngaphambilini agcina amanani aphezulu angama-4300 yuan/ton kanye nezintengo ze-alumina zehla kancane zaya ku-2600 yuan/ton. Mayelana nezindleko zikagesi, amabhizinisi aphethwe ngokwawo e-Inner Mongolia ehlise amanani kagesi ngamaphrimiyamu kagesi oluhlaza, okonga ngaphezu kwamayuan angama-200 ngethani likagesi we-aluminium. Nokho, ukushoda kwamandla kagesi e-Yunnan kuholele ekwenyukeni ngo-10% kwamanani kagesi ezinkampanini zasendaweni ze-aluminium, okubhebhethekisa ukuhlukaniswa kwamandla esifunda ngenxa yokuhluka kwezindleko.
Ngokwezimfanelo zezimali, ngemva kokuba umhlangano we-Federal Reserve ka-March wenzalo ukhiphe isignali ye-dovish, inkomba yedola laseMelika yehle yafika ku-104,5, ihlinzeka ngokusekela amanani entengo ye-aluminium ye-LME, kodwa ukuqiniswa kwezinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-yuan yaseShayina (inkomba ye-CFETS ikhuphuke yafika ku-105.3) yacindezela amandla okuba i-aluminium yaseShanghai ilandele okufanayo.
Uma sikhuluma ngobuchwepheshe, 20800 yuan/ton izinga elibalulekile lokumelana ne-Shanghai Aluminium. Uma ingagqekezwa ngempumelelo, ingase iqalise umthelela ku-21000 yuan/ton; Ngokuphambene nalokho, uma ukuthengiswa kwezindlu ezithengiswayo kuhluleka ukubuya, ingcindezi ephansi izokhula kakhulu.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Mar-25-2025