Ngomhla zingama-29 kuMbasa, 2025, intengo emaphakathi ye-aluminium engu-A00 emakethe yendawo yoMfula i-Yangtze yabikwa ku-20020 yuan/ton, ngokunyuka kwansuku zonke kwama-yuan angama-70; Inkontileka eyinhloko ye-Shanghai Aluminium, 2506, ivaliwe ngo-19930 yuan/ton. Yize ibiguquguquka kancane esimisweni sasebusuku, isabambe izinga eliyisihluthulelo lokusekela lika-19900 yuan phakathi nosuku. Ngemuva kwale threndi ekhuphukayo ukuzwakala phakathi kwe-inventory ebeka ingcaca yomhlaba wonke ewela ekwehleni komlando kanye nokuqiniswa kwemidlalo yenqubomgomo:
Impahla ye-aluminium ye-LME yehle yafinyelela kumathani angu-417575, ngaphansi kwesonto lezinsuku ezitholakalayo, futhi izindleko zamandla aphezulu eYurophu (ngezintengo zegesi yemvelo ziphindela ku-35 euros/megawatt ihora) zicindezela inqubekelaphambili yokuqalisa kabusha ukukhiqiza.
I-inventory social ye-Shanghai Aluminium yehle ngo-6.23% yaya kumathani angu-178597 ngesonto. Ngenxa yokukhishwa okugxilile kwezinto zasendlini kanye nama-oda ezimoto esifundeni esiseningizimu, iprimiyamu yendawo ingaphezu kwama-yuan angama-200/ton, futhi indawo yokugcina impahla yakwa-Foshan kwadingeka ime umugqa izinsuku ezingaphezu kwezingu-3 ukuze ithathe izimpahla.
Ⅰ. I-Driving Logic: Isidingo Sokuqina vs. Ukugoqa Kwezindleko
1. Isidingo samandla amasha siyahola, futhi imikhakha yendabuko ithola ukusimama okuncane
Umphumela wokugcina wokujaha ukufaka ama-photovoltaics: Ngo-Ephreli, ukukhiqizwa kwamamojula we-photovoltaic kukhuphuke ngo-17% ngenyanga, futhi isidingo samafreyimu e-aluminium sikhuphuke ngo-22% unyaka nonyaka. Kodwa-ke, njengoba indawo yenqubomgomo isondela ngoMeyi, ezinye izinkampani zikhiphe ama-oda engeziwe kusenesikhathi.
I-automobile lightweighting acceleration: Inani le-aluminium elisetshenziswa ezimotweni ezintsha zamandla imoto ngayinye lidlule amakhilogremu angu-350, okwenza izinga lokusebenza lezinkampani ze-aluminium plate, strip kanye nefoil likhuphuke lafika ku-82%. Kodwa-ke, ngo-Ephreli, izinga lokukhula kokuthengiswa kwezimoto lehla laya ku-12%, futhi umphumela wokuphindaphinda wokuhweba ngenqubomgomo waba buthaka.
Umugqa ophansi wama-oda wegridi yamandla: Iqoqo lesibili leGridi Yesifunda lokubhida amandla kagesi we-ultra-high wezinto ze-aluminium amathani angu-143000, futhi amabhizinisi amakhebula e-aluminium asebenza ngokugcwele, asekela ukukhiqizwa kwezigxobo ze-aluminium ukuze kugcinwe ukuphakama kweminyaka emihlanu.
2. Ohlangothini lwezindleko, kunezinto ezimbili ezeqisayo: iqhwa nomlilo
Ingcindezi ye-alumina eyeqile iyabonakala: ukuqaliswa kabusha kokukhiqizwa ezimayini ze-Shanxi kuphushe intengo ye-bauxite yabuyela ku-$80/ton, intengo yendawo ye-alumina yehle ngaphansi kwama-yuan angu-2900/ton, izindleko ze-aluminium ye-electrolytic zehle zafinyelela ku-16500 yuan/ton, futhi inzuzo emaphakathi yemboni iye yanda yafinyelela ku-yuan/tonni engu-3000.
Amaphuzu avelele e-premium ye-aluminium eluhlaza: Izindleko ze-Yunnan hydropower aluminium ton zingaphansi kwama-yuan angu-2000 kunamandla ashisayo, futhi umkhawulo wenzuzo enkulu yamabhizinisi afana ne-Yunnan Aluminium Co., Ltd. idlula isilinganiso sembonini ngamaphesenti angu-5, isheshisa ukucaciswa kwamandla okukhiqiza amandla ashisayo.
Ⅱ. Umdlalo omkhulu: Inqubomgomo 'inkemba esika-kabili' ihlukanisa okulindelwe yimakethe
1. Izinqubomgomo zokukhula ezinzile zasekhaya zivikela ubungozi besidingo sangaphandle
Ukwakhiwa kwephrojekthi yengqalasizinda endaweni eyodwa: IKhomishana Kazwelonke Yokuthuthukiswa Nezinguquko ihlela ukukhipha uhlu lwemiklamo “embaxambili” unyaka wonke ngaphambi kokuphela kukaJuni, okulindeleke ukuthi iqhubekisele phambili ukwanda kwamathani angu-500000 okusetshenziswa kwe-aluminium.
Okulindelekile kwenqubomgomo yezimali exegayo: Ibhange elikhulu limemezele “ukwehliswa okufika ngesikhathi kwesilinganiso semfuneko yenzuzo kanye namazinga enzalo”, futhi ukulindela ukuphelelwa yimali okuxekethile kuye kwashukumisa ukugeleza kwezimali emakethe yezimpahla.
2. Overseas' black swan 'threat escalation
Izinqubomgomo zentela zase-US eziphindaphindiwe: ukubeka intela engu-70%.imikhiqizo ye-aluminiumkusuka e-China ukuze kucindezelwe ukuthunyelwa kwempahla ngaphandle okuqondile, okuthinta ngokungaqondile amaketanga ezimboni afana nempahla yasendlini nezingxenye zezimoto. Izilinganiso eziqinile zibonisa ukuthi ukuchayeka kwe-aluminium e-US kungu-2.3%.
Isidingo esibuthakathaka eYurophu: Isibalo sokubhaliswa kwezimoto ezintsha e-EU kwikota yokuqala sehle ngo-1.9% unyaka nonyaka, futhi ukwanda kokukhiqizwa kwe-Trimet eJalimane kucindezele isikhala sokuphinda siboshwe se-aluminium yaseLondon. Izinga lokushintshisana lase-Shanghai London likhuphuke lafinyelela ku-8.3, futhi ukulahlekelwa kokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe kudlule i-yuan eyi-1000/ton.
Ⅲ. Impi yesikhwama: ukuhlukana kwamandla amakhulu kuyaqina, ukuzungeziswa komkhakha kuyashesha
Impi ende emfushane emakethe yesikhathi esizayo: Inkontileka eyinhloko ye-Shanghai Aluminium yehle ngenkatho engu-10393 ngosuku, izikhundla ezinde ze-Yong'an Futures zehle ngenkatho engu-12000, izikhundla ezimfushane zika-Guotai Jun'an zenyuka ngenkatho engu-1800, futhi umuzwa wokwenyanya ubungozi wezimali wakhuphuka.
Imakethe yamasheya inomehluko osobala: umkhakha womqondo we-aluminium ukhuphuke ngo-1.05% ngosuku olulodwa, kodwa i-China Aluminium Industry yehle ngo-0.93%, kuyilapho i-Nanshan Aluminium Industry ikhuphuke ngo-5.76% ngokumelene nalo mkhuba, ngezimali ezigxilwe ku-hydropower aluminium kanye nabaholi bokucubungula okuphezulu.
Ⅳ. I-Outlook yesikhathi esizayo: Imakethe ye-Pulse ngaphansi kwebhalansi eqinile
Isikhathi esifushane (1-2 izinyanga)
Ukuguquguquka kwentengo okuqinile: Isekelwe inani eliphansi lempahla kanye nesidingo sokugcwaliswa kabusha kweholide, i-Shanghai Aluminium ingase ihlole izinga lokucindezela lama-yuan angu-20300, kodwa kufanele kuqashelwe ngokuphindisela kwedola laseMelika okubangelwa ukubambezeleka kokuncishiswa kwezinga lenzalo ye-Federal Reserve.
Isexwayiso sengozi: Ushintsho olungazelelwe kunqubomgomo yokuthekelisa ye-bauxite yase-Indonesia kanye nenkinga yokulethwa ebangelwa unswinyo lwe-aluminium yaseRussia kungase kubangele ubungozi bokugcinwa kwempahla ngenkani.
Isikhathi esimaphakathi ukuya kwelide (ingxenye yesibili ka-2025)
Ukwenziwa kokujwayelekile kwebhalansi eqinile: Ukwanda kwamandla okukhiqiza i-aluminium ye-electrolytic emhlabeni wonke kungaphansi kwamathani ayizigidi ezingu-1 ngonyaka, futhi isidingo samandla amasha sikhula ngamathani angu-800000 ngonyaka, okwenza kube nzima ukuvala igebe.
Ukwakhiwa kabusha kwenani lochungechunge lwezimboni: Izinga lokusetshenziswa kwe-aluminiyamu egaywe kabusha lidlule ama-85%, futhi ubuchwepheshe obudidiyelwe be-die-casting buye baqhubeza ukucubungula inzuzo yonke yaba ngu-20%. Amabhizinisi anezithiyo zobuchwepheshe azohola umzuliswano olandelayo wokukhula.
[Idatha eku-athikili ithathwe ku-inthanethi, futhi imibono ingeyereferensi kuphela futhi ayisetshenziswa njengesisekelo sokutshala imali]
Isikhathi sokuthumela: May-06-2025