1. Ukugxila Emcimbini: I-United States ihlela ukuhoxisa okwesikhashana amanani entengo yemoto, futhi uchungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwezinkampani zezimoto luzomiswa.
Muva nje, owayenguMongameli wase-US u-Trump uveze esidlangalaleni ukuthi ucabanga ukusebenzisa ukukhululeka kwentela yesikhashana ezimotweni ezingeniswa kwamanye amazwe kanye nezingxenye ukuze avumele izinkampani ezigibela mahhala ukuthi zilungise amaketanga azo okuhlinzeka ngomkhiqizo wasekhaya e-United States. Nakuba ubukhulu nobude besikhathi sokukhululwa kungacacile, lesi sitatimende sisheshe savusa okulindelwe yimakethe ukuze kuncishiswe izingcindezi zezindleko ochungechungeni lwemboni yezimoto emhlabeni wonke.
Isandiso sangemuva
I-“de Sinicization” yezinkampani zezimoto ibhekene nezingqinamba: Ngo-2024, inani lezingxenye ze-aluminium elandwa abakhiqizi bezimoto baseMelika abavela eChina lehle ngo-18% unyaka nonyaka, kodwa ingxenye yokuthunyelwa kwempahla evela eCanada naseMexico iya e-United States ikhuphuke yafinyelela ku-45%. Izinkampani zezimoto zisathembele ochungechungeni lokuhlinzekwa kwesifunda saseNyakatho Melika esikhathini esifushane.
Ingxenye ebalulekile yokusetshenziswa kwe-aluminium: Imboni yokukhiqiza izimoto yenza ama-25% -30% esidingo se-aluminium emhlabeni wonke, ngokusetshenziswa konyaka cishe kwamathani ayizigidi ezi-4.5 emakethe yase-US. Ukukhululwa ezindlekweni kungase kukhuthaze ukuphindaphindeka kwesikhashana kwesidingo sezinto ze-aluminium ezingenisiwe.
2. Umthelela Wemakethe: Ukuthuthukiswa Kwesidingo Sesikhathi Esifushane vs. Umdlalo Wasendaweni Wesikhathi eside
Izinzuzo zesikhathi esifushane: Ukukhululwa kutharifi kubangela okulindelekile 'yokuthatha izinto ezingenisiwe'
Uma i-United States isebenzisa ukukhululwa kwentela yezinyanga ezingu-6-12 ezingxenyeni zezimoto ezingenisiwe ezivela e-Canada nase-Mexico, izinkampani zezimoto zingase zisheshise ukuthengwa kwempahla ukuze zinciphise izingozi zezindleko zesikhathi esizayo. Kulinganiselwa ukuthi imboni yezimoto yase-US idinga ukungenisa amathani angaba ngu-120000 e-aluminium (amaphaneli omzimba, izingxenye ezifayo, njll.) ngenyanga, futhi isikhathi sokukhululwa singase siqhubekisele phambili ukwanda kwesidingo se-aluminium emhlabeni wonke samathani angu-300000 kuya kwangu-500000 ngonyaka. Izintengo ze-aluminium ye-LME ziphinde zakhuphuka ngokuphendula, zenyuka ngo-1.5% zaya ku-$2520 ngethani ngo-Ephreli 14.
I-negative yesikhathi eside: Ukukhiqizwa kwendawo kucindezela isidingo se-aluminium yaphesheya kwezilwandle
Ukwandiswa komthamo wokukhiqiza i-aluminium esetshenziswe kabusha e-US: Ngo-2025, umthamo wokukhiqiza i-aluminium osetshenziswe kabusha wase-US kulindeleke ukuthi udlule amathani ayizigidi eziyisi-6 ngonyaka. Inqubomgomo "yokwenza indawo" yezinkampani zezimoto izobeka phambili ukuthengwa kwe-aluminium enekhabhoni ephansi, icindezele isidingo se-aluminium eyinhloko engenisiwe.
Indima “yesiteshi sezokuthutha” saseMexico iba buthaka: Ukukhiqizwa kwe-Tesla yaseMexico Gigafactory kuhlehlisiwe kuze kube ngu-2026, futhi ukukhululwa okwesikhashana mancane amathuba okuthi kuguqule inkambiso yesikhathi eside yokubuya kwezinkampani zezimoto.
3. Ukuxhunyaniswa kwemboni: ukuphikisana kwenqubomgomo kanye nokuhlelwa kabusha kohwebo lwe-aluminium emhlabeni jikelele
Umdlalo we-China 'wesikhathi sewindi' wokuthekelisa
Ukuthunyelwa kwemikhiqizo ecutshungulwe yi-aluminiyamu kukhuphuke kakhulu: Ipuleti le-aluminiyamu yezimoto zaseChina kanye nokuthunyelwa kwe-strip kwamanye amazwe kukhuphuke ngo-32% unyaka nonyaka ngoMashi. Uma i-United States ingazikhokhi izintela, amabhizinisi acubungulayo endaweni yase-Yangtze River Delta (njenge-Chalco ne-Asia Pacific Technology) angase abhekane nokukhuphuka kwama-oda.
Uhwebo lokuthekelisa kabusha luyakhula: umthamo wokuthekelisa we-aluminium oqediwe kancane usuka emazweni aseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia njengeMalaysia neVietnam uya e-United States ungakhula ngalesi siteshi, ugwema imingcele yemvelaphi.
Izinkampani ze-aluminium zaseYurophu zingaphansi kwengcindezi nhlangothi zombili
Ububi bezindleko bugqanyisiwe: izindleko eziphelele ze-aluminium ye-electrolytic eYurophu zisaphakeme kuno-$2500/ton, futhi uma isidingo se-US sishintshela ekukhiqizeni kwasekhaya, izitshalo ze-aluminium zaseYurophu zingaphoqeleka ukuba zinciphise ukukhiqizwa (njengesitshalo saseJalimane e-Heidelberg).
Ukuthuthukiswa kwesithiyo esiluhlaza: Intela ye-EU carbon border (CBAM) ihlanganisa imboni ye-aluminium, iqinisa ukuncintisana kwamazinga "e-low-carbon aluminium" e-US naseYurophu.
Kubhejwa osonhlamvukazi ku-'policy volatility'
Ngokusho kwedatha yezinketho ze-aluminium ye-CME, ngo-Ephreli 14, ukubanjwa kwezinketho zekholi kukhuphuke ngo-25%, futhi intengo ye-aluminium idlule i-2600 US dollar ngethoni ngemuva kokunikezwa ukukhululwa; Kodwa u-Goldman Sachs uxwayisa ngokuthi uma isikhathi sokukhululwa sisifushane kunezinyanga ezingu-6, amanani e-aluminium angase alahle izinzuzo zawo.
4. Ukubikezelwa Kwethrendi Yamanani E-Aluminium: I-Pulse Yenqubomgomo kanye Nokungqubuzana Okuyisisekelo
Isikhathi esifushane (1-3 izinyanga)
Ukukhuphukela phezulu: Ukukhululwa kokulindelweyo kukhuthaza isidingo sokugcwaliswa kabusha, kuhambisana nempahla ye-LME ewela ngaphansi kwamathani angu-400000 (amathani angu-398000 abikwa ngo-April 13), amanani e-aluminium angase ahlole ububanzi buka-2550-2600 amadola ase-US/ton.
Ingcuphe ebheke phansi: Uma imininingwane yokukhululwa ingalindelekile (njengokukhawulelwa kuyo yonke imoto kanye nezingxenye), amanani e-aluminium angase abuyele ezingeni losekelo lika-$2450/ton.
Isikhathi esimaphakathi (izinyanga eziyi-6-12)
Ukwehlukaniswa kwesidingo: Ukukhishwa kwamandla okukhiqiza i-aluminium aphinde agaywa kabusha asekhaya e-United States kucindezela ukuthengwa kwamanye amazwe, kodwa ukuthunyelwa kwe-China kwamanye amazweizimoto ezintsha zamandla(ngokunyuka kwesidingo saminyaka yonke samathani angu-800000) kanye nemiklamo yengqalasizinda eSoutheast Asia hedge ngokumelene nemiphumela engemihle.
Isikhungo senani: Izintengo ze-aluminium ye-LME zingagcina ukuguquguquka okubanzi okungu-2300-2600 US dollar/ton, nokwenyuka kwezinga lokuphazamiseka kwenqubomgomo.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Apr-15-2025