Kwikota yesibili ka-2026, inkomba ye-oda lokuthumela ngaphandle kwephrofayili ye-aluminium yaseShayina yanda izinyanga ezintathu zilandelana, yaguqula umkhuba wokucotha kwekota yokuqala. Ngokusho kwedatha evela kwi-China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya kuMeyi 2026, umthamo wokuthumela ngaphandle wamaphrofayili e-aluminium eShayina wawungamathani angaba ngu-980000, ukwanda konyaka nonyaka okungu-8.5%. Inani lokuthumela ngaphandle licishe libe yizigidigidi ezingu-4.2 zamaRandi aseMelika, ukwanda konyaka nonyaka okungu-12.3%. Ukwanda okukhulu kuvela emakethe yaseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia kanye nochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwezimoto zikagesi zaseNyakatho Melika, okuhlangene okunikela ngo-72% wokwanda kokuthumela ngaphandle.
Ukusheshisa Ingqalasizinda YaseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia: I-New Growth Pole Yokuthunyelwa Kwephrofayili Ye-Aluminium
Izinga lokutshalwa kwezimali kwengqalasizinda le-Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) kulindeleke ukuthi lifinyelele amaRandi ayizigidigidi ezingama-210 ngo-2026, okuwukwenyuka konyaka nonyaka okungu-15%. Ukwakhiwa kwenhloko-dolobha entsha yase-Indonesia, iNusantara, kungene esikhathini esiphambili, ngesidingo esikhulu sokusebenzisa izindonga zamakhethini ze-aluminium, iminyango namafasitela, kanye nezindawo zokuhamba. IVietnam neThailand zisheshise ukufakwa kwazo kwe-photovoltaic, ngama-oda okuthumela kwamanye amazwe amaphrofayili e-aluminium asetshenziswa ozimele be-photovoltaic anda ngaphezu kuka-40% unyaka nonyaka. Amaphrojekthi okuthutha ngesitimela eMalaysia nasePhilippines ayaqhubeka kakhulu, futhi inani lokuthengwa kwamaphrofayili e-aluminium kanyeamashidi e-aluminiumikhule kakhulu. Imakethe yaseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia incike kakhulu kumaphrofayili e-aluminium aseShayina, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokunganeli kwamandla okucubungula i-aluminium esifundeni ukuhlangabezana nezidingo zengqalasizinda, kanti imikhiqizo yaseShayina inezinzuzo ezinkulu zokuncintisana maqondana nokusebenza kahle kwezindleko.
Ukubala phansi kuya ezindleleni zekhabhoni ze-EU: ingcindezi yezindleko cishe yama-euro angu-80-120 ngethani
I-EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) izongena esigabeni sokuqaliswa okuphelele ngo-2026, futhi imikhiqizo ye-aluminium izofakwa eqenjini lokuqala lesilinganiso sentela. Ngokusho kokubala kweKhomishini yaseYurophu, isilinganiso sokukhishwa kwekhabhoni kwe-aluminium ye-electrolytic eShayina singamathani ayi-14.5 e-CO₂/ton ye-aluminium, ephakeme kakhulu kunamathani ayi-6 e-CO₂/ton ye-aluminium ekhiqizwa yi-aluminium yasekhaya esebenza ngamanzi e-EU. Ngokusekelwe entengo yamanje yekhabhoni ye-EU engaba ama-euro angama-85/ton ye-CO₂, ukuthumela imikhiqizo ye-aluminium yaseShayina e-EU kuzobhekana nezindleko zekhabhoni ezibalelwa kuma-euro angama-80~120/ton, okulingana cishe nama-yuan angama-620~930/ton ku-yuan yaseShayina. Uma le ndleko idluliselwa ngokugcwele, izonciphisa kakhulu ukuncintisana kwentengo kwemikhiqizo ye-aluminium yaseShayina emakethe yaseYurophu. Abanye abathengi baseYurophu sebeqalile ukucela abahlinzeki ukuthi banikeze isitifiketi sekhabhoni yomkhiqizo, futhi iprimiyamu yemikhiqizo ye-aluminium enekhabhoni ephansi iya ngokuya ibonakala.
Indlela Yokuthuthuka Kwebhizinisi: Ukuthuthukiswa Okuluhlaza, Okunekhabhoni Ephansi, kanye Nokuthuthukiswa Okuphezulu
Ebhekene nengcindezi yentela yekhabhoni, amabhizinisi okucubungula i-aluminium asekhaya asheshisa ukwakheka kwamandla okukhiqiza i-carbon eluhlaza kanye nephansi. Izifunda zaseYunnan, eSichuan nakwezinye izindawo eziseningizimu-ntshonalanga zithembele ezinsizeni eziningi zamandla kagesi ukuze zithuthukise ngamandla amaphrojekthi e-aluminium ahlanganisiwe e-hydropower. Amandla okukhishwa kwe-carbon kwe-aluminium yamandla kagesi angancishiswa abe ngaphansi kwamathani ayi-8 e-CO₂/ton ye-aluminium, okungaphansi kuka-45% kunokwe-aluminium yamandla okushisa. Ngaphezu kwalokho, imboni ye-aluminium ephinde yasetshenziswa isingene esikhathini sokuthuthukiswa, ngamandla okukhishwa kwekhabhoni angamathani ayi-1.5 kuphela e-CO₂ ngethani le-aluminium, okubonisa izinzuzo ezinkulu zekhabhoni ephansi. Engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2026, ukukhiqizwa kwe-aluminium ephinde yasetshenziswa ekhaya kuzoba cishe ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-7.8, ukwanda konyaka nonyaka okungu-11.2%, okubalelwa ku-22% wesamba se-aluminium. Ngokuphathelene nemikhiqizo ephezulu, isilinganiso sokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe semikhiqizo enenani eliphezulu njenge-aluminium yokukhanyisa izimoto, i-aluminium yezindiza, kanye ne-aluminium foil yebhethri lamandla siyaqhubeka nokukhula, futhi isakhiwo somkhiqizo wokuthumela kwamanye amazwe sithuthukiswa kancane kancane.
Ukuncintisana Kwasekhaya: Ukucindezela Okuphindwe Kabili Kokwanda Kwamandla kanye Nokwehluka Kwezidingo
Umthamo wokucubungula i-aluminium yasekhaya uyaqhubeka nokukhula. Engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2026, umthamo wokukhiqiza iphrofayili entsha ye-aluminium uzoba cishe ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-1.2 ngonyaka, kanti umthamo wokukhiqiza uwonke uzodlula amathani ayizigidi ezingu-45 ngonyaka, kuyilapho ukusetshenziswa okubonakalayo kuzoba cishe ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-42 ngonyaka. Iphethini yomthamo oweqile ayishintshi. Ukuqina komncintiswano kuholele ekucindezelweni okuqhubekayo ezimalini zokucubungula. Imali yokucubungula yamaphrofayili e-aluminium ajwayelekile okwakha yehle yaya cishe kuma-yuan angu-2500 ~ 3000/ton, ukwehla cishe ngo-40% kusukela endaweni ephezulu ngo-2020. Ukwehlukaniswa kwenzuzo yamabhizinisi kuyakhula, futhi isabelo semakethe samabhizinisi amakhulu anezinzuzo eziphansi zekhabhoni, imikhiqizo ephezulu, kanye nesakhiwo samakhasimende sekhwalithi ephezulu siyaqhubeka nokukhula. Isikhala sokusinda samabhizinisi amancane naphakathi okucubungula siyacindezelwa kakhulu.
Ama-oda okuthumela ngaphandle kwephrofayili ye-aluminium akhuphuke izinyanga ezintathu zilandelana, okubonisa ukuthuthuka okuncane kwesidingo sangaphandle, kanti ingqalasizinda yaseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia kanye neziteshi zokuhlinzeka ngezimoto zikagesi zaseNyakatho Melika kuyizinto eziyinhloko eziqhubayo. Kodwa ukusetshenziswa okugcwele kwentela yekhabhoni ye-EU kuseduze, futhi ukuncintisana ngekhabhoni ephansi kuzoba yinto ebalulekile enquma isiphetho samabhizinisi okuthumela ngaphandle. Amabhizinisi okucubungula i-aluminium asekhaya adinga ukusheshisa ukuguqulwa kwawo okuluhlaza kanye nekhabhoni ephansi, athuthukise isakhiwo sawo somkhiqizo wokuthumela ngaphandle, ukuze anganqotshwa emncintiswaneni wamazwe ngamazwe.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Julayi-16-2026